A Peace Proposal for the Middle East

By Johan Galtung and Dietrich Fischer

An Israeli proverb says, "the only way to get rid of your enemies is to make them your friends." That is not happening now. For Israel and Palestine there is no security at the end of this road of violence, only increased violence and insecurity.

Israel is now in the most dangerous period of its history: increasingly militarist, fighting unwinnable wars, increasingly isolated and with ever more enemies, exposed to violence, non-violent resistance and boycotts from within and without. Sooner or later, the USA will make support conditional on concessions. The situation is reminiscent of what South Africa faced from inside and outside before the end of Apartheid.

Israel's moral capital is rapidly depreciating, is probably negative in most countries, slowly also changing in the USA;
Israel is essentially ruled by the military, offering the electorate a choice of generals with limited agendas;
Israeli violence and intransigence mobilize resistance and struggle in the Arab and Muslim worlds, if not in the sense of inter-state warfare then in the postmodern sense of terrorism against Israeli state-terrorism. Highly motivated volunteers willing to enter this struggle are in unlimited supply;
Sooner or later this will include some of the 18% Israeli Arabs;
Sooner or later this may lead to massive nonviolent struggle, like 100,000 Arab women in black marching on Israel;
An economic boycott of Israel may come, like for South Africa initiated by non-governmental organizations, followed by local authorities and then national governments. Like in South Africa, it may be more important morally than economically;
Again like for South Africa, US policy may change:
- economically Israel is becoming a liability, given the importance of access to Arab oil and trade with oil-rich countries for the USA, as the Arab countries are no longer willing to see the USA as an impartial third party. Boycotts and pressure to disinvest may follow.
- militarily Israel may commit the USA to a highly ambiguous war, and bases are available elsewhere (Turkey, Kosova, Macedonia);
- politically Israel is a liability in the UN. The EU and NATO allies may not legitimize violent intervention. At some point down the present path, the USA may prefer a reasonable agreement to supporting a loser, as it had earlier abandoned the Shah of Iran and President Marcos of the Philippines.

Clearly, colossal mistakes are being made also by Palestinians and their leadership, as people do when pressed against a wall. The issue is not simply to allocate blame, that will not bring a solution, but to offer better alternatives.

Could the following peace package be more attractive to reasonable people?

Palestine is recognized as a state following UN Security Council Resolutions 242 and 338, with the borders existing on 4 June 1967, with small land exchanges;
East Jerusalem becomes the capital of Palestine;
A Middle East Community with Israel, Palestine, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria as full members, with water, arms, trade regimes based on multilateral consensus; and an Organization for Security and Cooperation in the Middle East with a broader base, analogous to the highly successful OSCE in Europe.
This Community is supported by the EU, Nordic Community and ASEAN financially and for institution-building expertise;
Egypt and Jordan lease additional land to Palestine;
Israel and Palestine become federations with two Israeli cantons in Palestine and two Palestinian cantons in Israel;
The two neighbor capitals become a city confederation, also host to major regional, UN and ecumenical institutions;
The right of return also to Israel is accepted in principle, numbers to be negotiated within the canton formula;
Israel and Palestine have joint and equitable mutually beneficial economic ventures, joint peace education and joint border patrolling;
Massive stationing of UN monitoring forces.
Sooner or later a Truth and Reconciliation process. Mediating a peace package should not be a country, or a group of countries, but a respected person or a group of such persons.

In the present climate of violence and mutual hatred, such peaceful cooperation seems hard to imagine. But down the road, as the costs of violence mount for both sides, there will come a time when a fair and reasonable outcome, recognizing the human rights of all, is perceived as preferable by enough people to make it happen. In 1944, few people could have foreseen the close cooperation between Germany and France today, and after the Soviet Union shot down a Korean airliner over Sakhalin in 1983, few could imagine Gorbachev's perestroika only two years later, which soon led to an end of the Cold War.

What is needed to escape from the present quagmire is a clearly articulated, attractive vision of a better future.

Johan Galtung, a Professor of Peace Studies, is Director of TRANSCEND, a peace and development network. Dietrich Fischer, a Professor at Pace University, is Co-director of TRANSCEND.

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